Fri Nov 6 · 7:00 PM EST
24% Virginia Tech 24
VS 76% SMU 33
Our prediction: SMU Mustangs · Win probability Virginia Tech 23.9% / SMU 76.2%
Projected score: Virginia Tech 24, SMU 33
SMU have faced the tougher schedule (average opponent +6.5 vs −0.6 for Virginia Tech). SMU (6-2) rate +14.7 points per game after adjusting for opponents, Virginia Tech (6-2) +11.1. SMU are at home; home teams have won by 4.4 points more on average in this season's data, as we weight it. Margin of victory, 10,000 runs
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Our prediction: Arizona Wildcats · Win probability TCU 18.6% / Arizona 81.4%
Projected score: TCU 17, Arizona 29
Arizona (6-2) rate +23.8 points per game after adjusting for opponents, TCU (4-4) +17.5. Arizona have been better lately: last 3 results W by 21, W by 36, L by 8. Arizona are at home; home teams have won by 4.4 points more on average in this season's data, as we weight it. Margin of victory, 10,000 runs
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72% UCLA 27
VS 28% Minnesota 19
Our prediction: UCLA Bruins · Win probability UCLA 71.9% / Minnesota 28.1%
Projected score: UCLA 27, Minnesota 19
UCLA (8-0) rate +25.8 points per game after adjusting for opponents, Minnesota (5-3) +13.1. Minnesota score 25.3 and allow 20.5 per game; UCLA score 33.5 and allow 13.4. Minnesota are at home; home teams have won by 4.4 points more on average in this season's data, as we weight it. Margin of victory, 10,000 runs
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12% Cincinnati 22
VS 88% Houston 38
Our prediction: Houston Cougars · Win probability Cincinnati 11.9% / Houston 88.1%
Projected score: Cincinnati 22, Houston 38
Houston (6-2) rate +25.2 points per game after adjusting for opponents, Cincinnati (5-3) +12.3. Houston score 36 and allow 21 per game; Cincinnati score 34.1 and allow 29.3. Houston are at home; home teams have won by 4.4 points more on average in this season's data, as we weight it. Margin of victory, 10,000 runs
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43% Iowa 22
VS 57% Northwestern 25
Our prediction: Northwestern Wildcats · Win probability Iowa 43.1% / Northwestern 56.9%
Projected score: Iowa 22, Northwestern 25
Iowa have been better lately: last 3 results W by 17, L by 3, W by 30. Northwestern are at home; home teams have won by 4.4 points more on average in this season's data, as we weight it. Northwestern have faced the tougher schedule (average opponent +15.7 vs +12.8 for Iowa). Margin of victory, 10,000 runs
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Our prediction: Utah Utes · Win probability BYU 19.7% / Utah 80.3%
Projected score: BYU 21, Utah 32
Utah (8-0) rate +29.3 points per game after adjusting for opponents, BYU (7-1) +22.3. Utah score 38.9 and allow 15.9 per game; BYU score 32.4 and allow 18.8. Utah are at home; home teams have won by 4.4 points more on average in this season's data, as we weight it. Margin of victory, 10,000 runs
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46% Texas 24
VS 55% Missouri 25
Our prediction: Missouri Tigers · Win probability Texas 45.5% / Missouri 54.5%
Projected score: Texas 24, Missouri 25
Texas have faced the tougher schedule (average opponent +27.8 vs +21.4 for Missouri). Missouri are at home; home teams have won by 4.4 points more on average in this season's data, as we weight it. Missouri (6-2) rate +27.6 points per game after adjusting for opponents, Texas (6-2) +31.0. Margin of victory, 10,000 runs
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70% Oklahoma St 34
VS 30% Kansas St 27
Our prediction: Oklahoma State Cowboys · Win probability Oklahoma St 69.8% / Kansas St 30.2%
Projected score: Oklahoma St 34, Kansas St 27
Oklahoma St (5-3) rate +22.9 points per game after adjusting for opponents, Kansas St (4-4) +12.1. Oklahoma St have faced the tougher schedule (average opponent +14.6 vs +6.3 for Kansas St). Kansas St are at home; home teams have won by 4.4 points more on average in this season's data, as we weight it. Margin of victory, 10,000 runs
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7% Rutgers 15
VS 93% Wisconsin 35
Our prediction: Wisconsin Badgers · Win probability Rutgers 6.8% / Wisconsin 93.2%
Projected score: Rutgers 15, Wisconsin 35
Wisconsin (5-3) rate +21.5 points per game after adjusting for opponents, Rutgers (2-6) +3.3. Wisconsin have faced the tougher schedule (average opponent +20.9 vs +10.2 for Rutgers). Wisconsin score 23.6 and allow 17.1 per game; Rutgers score 27.8 and allow 32.6. Margin of victory, 10,000 runs
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24% Oregon 22
VS 76% Ohio State 31
Our prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes · Win probability Oregon 23.9% / Ohio State 76.1%
Projected score: Oregon 22, Ohio State 31
Ohio State (6-2) rate +29.3 points per game after adjusting for opponents, Oregon (5-3) +23.9. Ohio State score 36.6 and allow 15.5 per game; Oregon score 33.3 and allow 21.4. Ohio State have been worse lately: last 3 results W by 29, W by 4, L by 12. Margin of victory, 10,000 runs
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Our prediction: LSU Tigers · Win probability Alabama 22.7% / LSU 77.3%
Projected score: Alabama 24, LSU 34
Alabama have been worse lately: last 3 results L by 3, L by 16, W by 11. LSU score 40.1 and allow 16 per game; Alabama score 38.3 and allow 21.3. LSU are at home; home teams have won by 4.4 points more on average in this season's data, as we weight it. Margin of victory, 10,000 runs
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Not enough completed games this season for Merrimack to rate yet.
Sat Nov 7 · 6:00 PM EST
93% Boise St 43
VS 7% Colorado St 23
Our prediction: Boise State Broncos · Win probability Boise St 92.9% / Colorado St 7.1%
Projected score: Boise St 43, Colorado St 23
Boise St (6-1) rate +23.4 points per game after adjusting for opponents, Colorado St (3-5) +0.2. Colorado St score 35.5 and allow 42.4 per game; Boise St score 34.4 and allow 20.6. Boise St have faced the tougher schedule (average opponent +15.6 vs +8.2 for Colorado St). Margin of victory, 10,000 runs
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33% Kentucky 24
VS 67% Tennessee 30
Our prediction: Tennessee Volunteers · Win probability Kentucky 33.1% / Tennessee 66.9%
Projected score: Kentucky 24, Tennessee 30
Tennessee score 32.3 and allow 16.3 per game; Kentucky score 32.9 and allow 24.8. Kentucky have faced the tougher schedule (average opponent +25.5 vs +19.2 for Tennessee). Tennessee are at home; home teams have won by 4.4 points more on average in this season's data, as we weight it. Margin of victory, 10,000 runs
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35% Miami 27
VS 65% Notre Dame 32
Our prediction: Notre Dame Fighting Irish · Win probability Miami 34.9% / Notre Dame 65.1%
Projected score: Miami 27, Notre Dame 32
Miami have been worse lately: last 3 results W by 8, W by 29, W by 3. Notre Dame are at home; home teams have won by 4.4 points more on average in this season's data, as we weight it. Notre Dame have been worse lately: last 3 results W by 51, L by 4, W by 22. Margin of victory, 10,000 runs
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35% Georgia 27
VS 65% Ole Miss 32
Our prediction: Ole Miss Rebels · Win probability Georgia 35.4% / Ole Miss 64.6%
Projected score: Georgia 27, Ole Miss 32
Ole Miss score 37.1 and allow 24 per game; Georgia score 41 and allow 14.9. Ole Miss have faced the tougher schedule (average opponent +26.3 vs +17.2 for Georgia). Ole Miss have been better lately: last 3 results W by 28, L by 7, W by 30. Margin of victory, 10,000 runs
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26% Oklahoma 22
VS 75% Florida 31
Our prediction: Florida Gators · Win probability Oklahoma 25.5% / Florida 74.5%
Projected score: Oklahoma 22, Florida 31
Florida (5-3) rate +25.9 points per game after adjusting for opponents, Oklahoma (4-4) +20.4. Florida are at home; home teams have won by 4.4 points more on average in this season's data, as we weight it. Florida have been worse lately: last 3 results L by 19, W by 3, L by 19. Margin of victory, 10,000 runs
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17% West Virginia 25
VS 83% Texas Tech 38
Our prediction: Texas Tech Red Raiders · Win probability West Virginia 16.7% / Texas Tech 83.3%
Projected score: West Virginia 25, Texas Tech 38
Texas Tech (7-1) rate +23.9 points per game after adjusting for opponents, West Virginia (5-3) +14.2. Texas Tech score 35.6 and allow 21.1 per game; West Virginia score 35.9 and allow 32.3. Texas Tech are at home; home teams have won by 4.4 points more on average in this season's data, as we weight it. Margin of victory, 10,000 runs
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